Card drawing, pack buying and card crafting probabilities
Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2014 6:26 am
Hello all,
I have noticed that a lot of people are asking about the odds of getting certain rarities of cards through drawing, buying packs and crafting. So I will be consolidating all the data we have here in the forums into a single source. If you want to help, just keep a record when you draw cards, buy a pack or try to craft and post the results here. I will periodically update my post here, combining everyone's data to get better statistics. Everything here is using a 99% confidence interval, meaning it is very likely to be true.
Lucky Stars Pack:
Here is the data I have so far on Lucky Stars Pack (collected from myself, yeurandom, MoggStyle and isaac434241): Every Lucky Stars pack gives you five cards. One of those is guaranteed to be a gold card. The other four are random with the following probability ranges (based on 295 packs = 1180 random cards.)
Silver: 87.5% - 92% (1057 out of 1180)
Gold: 2.7% - 5.8% (48 out of 1180)
Diamond (Blue) : 4.6% - 8.3% (74 out of 1180)
Legend (Purple): Less than 0.63% (1 out of 1180)
All of these numbers are per random card in the deck.
So, on a per pack basis, Lucky Stars pack will always give you at least one gold card. There is at least a 10% chance of getting at least one extra gold card. There is at least a 17% chance of getting a diamond (blue) card per pack. And the odds of getting a legend (purple) card in a Lucky Stars pack is less than 2.5%, probably much less.
Dominating Pack:
I only have data for one pack:
1 legend (guaranteed), 1 diamond, 5 gold
======================
Now for card crafting: This data comes from MoggStyle and me.
Crafting silver to gold: 34% - 66% (28 out of 56)
Crafting gold to diamond: 26% - 71% (14 out of 29)
Crafting diamond to legend: less than 44% (3 out of 18)
Of course, you can't even try to craft diamond to legend any more and who knows if you ever will be able to again.
=======================
Card drawing:
This is the sum of data from isaac434241 and myself: A total of 834 cards were drawn from Coins Draw. The odds of earch rarity (on a per card basis) are:
Silver: 76% - 83% (664 out of 834)
Gold: 15% - 22% (154 out of 834)
Diamond (Blue) : 1.0% - 3.5% (16 out of 834)
Legend (Purple): Less than 0.6% (0 out of 834)
=======================
The more data we have the better we will know our odds, so please keep a record of your attempts and purchases and post them here if you have the time. Don't guess or estimate though. We need good data, so it is best to write down exactly what you get from each draw, pack or craft into a spreadsheet. Then you can submit it to this thread and I will add it to the tally. Google offers a good, free spreadsheet program if you need one.
=======================
This post was updated on 19 Dec, 2014. I added more data to Lucky Stars Pack section, the Dominating Pack section and the Coins Draw section, and the Crafting Section.
I have noticed that a lot of people are asking about the odds of getting certain rarities of cards through drawing, buying packs and crafting. So I will be consolidating all the data we have here in the forums into a single source. If you want to help, just keep a record when you draw cards, buy a pack or try to craft and post the results here. I will periodically update my post here, combining everyone's data to get better statistics. Everything here is using a 99% confidence interval, meaning it is very likely to be true.
Lucky Stars Pack:
Here is the data I have so far on Lucky Stars Pack (collected from myself, yeurandom, MoggStyle and isaac434241): Every Lucky Stars pack gives you five cards. One of those is guaranteed to be a gold card. The other four are random with the following probability ranges (based on 295 packs = 1180 random cards.)
Silver: 87.5% - 92% (1057 out of 1180)
Gold: 2.7% - 5.8% (48 out of 1180)
Diamond (Blue) : 4.6% - 8.3% (74 out of 1180)
Legend (Purple): Less than 0.63% (1 out of 1180)
All of these numbers are per random card in the deck.
So, on a per pack basis, Lucky Stars pack will always give you at least one gold card. There is at least a 10% chance of getting at least one extra gold card. There is at least a 17% chance of getting a diamond (blue) card per pack. And the odds of getting a legend (purple) card in a Lucky Stars pack is less than 2.5%, probably much less.
Dominating Pack:
I only have data for one pack:
1 legend (guaranteed), 1 diamond, 5 gold
======================
Now for card crafting: This data comes from MoggStyle and me.
Crafting silver to gold: 34% - 66% (28 out of 56)
Crafting gold to diamond: 26% - 71% (14 out of 29)
Crafting diamond to legend: less than 44% (3 out of 18)
Of course, you can't even try to craft diamond to legend any more and who knows if you ever will be able to again.
=======================
Card drawing:
This is the sum of data from isaac434241 and myself: A total of 834 cards were drawn from Coins Draw. The odds of earch rarity (on a per card basis) are:
Silver: 76% - 83% (664 out of 834)
Gold: 15% - 22% (154 out of 834)
Diamond (Blue) : 1.0% - 3.5% (16 out of 834)
Legend (Purple): Less than 0.6% (0 out of 834)
=======================
The more data we have the better we will know our odds, so please keep a record of your attempts and purchases and post them here if you have the time. Don't guess or estimate though. We need good data, so it is best to write down exactly what you get from each draw, pack or craft into a spreadsheet. Then you can submit it to this thread and I will add it to the tally. Google offers a good, free spreadsheet program if you need one.
=======================
This post was updated on 19 Dec, 2014. I added more data to Lucky Stars Pack section, the Dominating Pack section and the Coins Draw section, and the Crafting Section.
